With HTML5 here, flash won't get far?
Ever since news of HTML5 got out, the new waves have been pushing the old ones forward, and more and more people have started paying attention to HTML5. From last September until now, I’ve read quite a few articles arguing that Flash will be replaced by HTML5. Recently I came across another one, “With HTML5, How Much Farther Can Flash Go?”, and it struck a nerve: http://blog.csdn.net/cping1982/archive/2010/02/23/5321010.aspx
Thanks to the author Pengling Sanqian for sharing these valuable thoughts — the article is well reasoned and well supported. Having read it, I’d like to add a few personal points.
1. Times Have Changed — Flash Won’t Necessarily Repeat Applet’s FateWhether Flash lives or dies depends on many factors, and there’s no need to compare it to Applet. The historical context and user demands have all changed, so the old lessons no longer apply.
True, Flash’s shortcomings have always been there (not long ago, even the iPad — touted as offering the “best web experience” — stubbornly refused to install Flash because of performance issues, leaving many web pages unable to display fully). But whether a product is good or bad is only part of the odds of winning; operations, promotion, and user demand matter just as much. A bad product doesn’t necessarily fail to make money, and a good product doesn’t necessarily make money either — there’s a certain fate in it all, and whoever wins the hearts of users wins the world.