Ever since news of HTML5 got out, the new waves have been pushing the old ones forward, and more and more people have started paying attention to HTML5. From last September until now, I’ve read quite a few articles arguing that Flash will be replaced by HTML5. Recently I came across another one, “With HTML5, How Much Farther Can Flash Go?”, and it struck a nerve: http://blog.csdn.net/cping1982/archive/2010/02/23/5321010.aspx
Thanks to the author Pengling Sanqian for sharing these valuable thoughts — the article is well reasoned and well supported. Having read it, I’d like to add a few personal points.
1. Times Have Changed — Flash Won’t Necessarily Repeat Applet’s Fate
Whether Flash lives or dies depends on many factors, and there’s no need to compare it to Applet. The historical context and user demands have all changed, so the old lessons no longer apply.
True, Flash’s shortcomings have always been there (not long ago, even the iPad — touted as offering the “best web experience” — stubbornly refused to install Flash because of performance issues, leaving many web pages unable to display fully). But whether a product is good or bad is only part of the odds of winning; operations, promotion, and user demand matter just as much. A bad product doesn’t necessarily fail to make money, and a good product doesn’t necessarily make money either — there’s a certain fate in it all, and whoever wins the hearts of users wins the world.
The author has already pointed out that Sun’s top brass at the time lacked foresight, retreated without a fight, and handed the web front end and desktop market over to others. Nowadays, though, Adobe is going all out with the Flash platform. It’s already a powerful software galaxy, with its parts echoing one another, its user base still growing, and developers fighting tooth and nail to get into the Flash development circle. Adobe has been laying out its pieces and building momentum all along, playing a game of Go over the future RIA lifestyle ecosystem. Right now it’s still on the upswing, with a long way to go before it heads downhill.
2. It’s Still Early
The author says:
In the new era, as HTML5 gradually becomes widespread, a great reshuffling of web technology will arrive once again.
I agree strongly with this. But our country has always been slow when it comes to reshuffling civilian IT technology. If a major tech reshuffle centered on HTML5 begins abroad, how much resistance would there be for our motherland to change its technology all at once? I think you can see it clearly just by looking at the fact that the MIIT’s website-filing sites still only support IE6 to this day. Doing technology here is subject to “macro-control.”
The author says:
Just take a quick look at recent update trends for Chrome and FireFox, or even the future plans for IE9, and you’ll immediately realize: will they wait for you until 2022? Absolutely not! Before 2015, HTML5 will already be the de facto standard across all browsers.
I think it’s just a shame that the proportion of users in China using these two browsers is still far too small — the customer is king, so there’s nothing you can do. The number of the unenlightened masses still surfing the web on a ten-year-old IE6 is just massive… Tell them to switch browsers and they’ll drown you in a vast ocean of the masses’ spittle and saliva. Just to wait for this crowd to upgrade their equipment, I figure HTML5 would already be in its adolescence.
3. HTML5 Has Been Deified — Flash and HTML5 Don’t Conflict
“Engineer Zhang, have you started using HTML5 lately?” “Not yet — everyone keeps telling me that once you use HTML5, your back stops aching, your legs stop hurting, and you can run up five flights of stairs in one breath! I’m just about to give it a try!” “Yes, yes, come try it right away — HTML5 is really badass, it has all of Flash’s common features!”
The author says:
Just imagine: as HTML5 gradually becomes widespread, when you can play HD online video through a single
I agree with everything said above, but I don’t agree with that last line — “who will still care about swf, who will still remember Flash?” The original author is a clear-headed person, but readers often take things one-sidedly. Today in a chat group I heard quite a few people conclude, after reading the author’s article, that Flash has no future. So let me give some examples to show that HTML5 and Flash focus on different areas:
HTML5 is really badass — it has all of Flash’s common features. 1. Web games. If someone makes web games with HTML5, I’ll play them the same way. This one is quite reliable! 2. Making cartoons. In the future someone will make cartoons like Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf with HTML5, and I’ll definitely watch them. 3. Cross-platform desktop apps. In the future someone will make desktop software with HTML5, and I’ll try it out too. 4. Multimedia courseware. In the future someone will make courseware on trigonometric functions, or even science-education shorts, with HTML5, and I’ll definitely recommend it to teachers and classmates. 5. Designing UIs with gfx. Hmm, in the future let StarCraft 3 or whatever else design its UI with HTML5, why use swf, who’ll still remember Flash?
My examples aren’t meant to exaggerate Flash, but to show that there are areas where Flash needn’t be compared with HTML5 at all.
As a user, I applaud the arrival of HTML5, but HTML5 is, after all, a markup language and shouldn’t be deified. A ruler has its strengths and a foot has its weaknesses; technology is just a means, and it’s fine as long as it’s used where it should be. The future is an era of cultural convergence, and technology has reached an era of learning from each other’s strengths and joining two swords into one. The application scopes of HTML5 and Flash are more about differences than similarities, and the two are more complementary than conflicting.
In Summary, My Point of View
Whether Flash lives or dies depends on many factors. There’s no need to draw an analogy with Applet — the historical context has all changed, and change makes prediction impossible.
Please don’t exaggerate the role of a still-gestating HTML5 while belittling FLASH, and don’t compare HTML5’s strengths with FLASH’s weaknesses; the overlap between the two is far smaller than their differences.
There is no eternal way in the world. Every era comes to an end someday, and Flash is no exception. Those of us working in Flash development should indeed be on guard — technology is only a means, not an end, and constantly keeping up with the times is the best course. When Flash technology finally retires to its hometown, there’s no need to feel reluctant to let it go. Flash’s glory days will be inscribed on the monument of history in every developer’s heart — a sacred and inviolable classic era.
PS: Friends who aren’t familiar with HTML5 can refer to html5, the rising star of rich internet